Hedgehogs and Foxes

The New Yorker: The Critics: Books

This article talks about Philip Tetlock's new book, "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?", and how experts are no better than average folks at predicting the future. He talks about two types of thinkers, "hedgehogs" and "foxes", which roughly translate to ideologues and those who favour more nuanced analysis. Hedgehogs, when they're right, tend to look VERY right, even though they may be wrong just as often. He suggests that current events and the digital revolution favour a hedgehogian worldview, polarizing our discourse.